Voters will head to the polls across the US on Tuesday for state and local elections that will take the political temperature nearly one year into Donald Trump’s second term in the White House.
Hundreds of local government positions ranging from school board governors and city council officials to judges, mayors and governors will be voted on in dozens of states across America.
But races in the following five states will have national significance, providing the clearest signal yet of how Republicans and Democrats are faring in the eyes of the electorate one year out from next year’s midterm elections, when control of both chambers of Congress will be up for grabs.
New York
While mayoral races will take place in a number of states on Tuesday, the most closely watched contest will be held in New York City, where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani appears on course to complete his remarkable rise from political newcomer to leader of America’s biggest city.
Mamdani, 34, shocked the political establishment in June, when he defeated former New York state governor Andrew Cuomo and incumbent New York City mayor Eric Adams, among others, in a crowded field of hopefuls in a Democratic primary contest.
Cuomo decided to run in November’s general election as an independent, but several recent polls have shown Mamdani with a double-digit lead over the former governor. The Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, has long trailed in the polls in a distant third place.
Mamdani is nevertheless divisive, and his policy platform, focused on affordability, with a sweeping expansion of public services paid for by tax rises for the wealthy and corporations, and pointed criticism of Israel, has exposed deep fissures in the Democratic party.
He has also been attacked by Republicans, including Trump, who has threatened to withhold federal funding for New York City if voters there elect Mamdani.
Virginia
The Virginia governor’s race takes place every four years and is among the most anticipated off-year elections in the US. Taking place one year after a presidential election, it has long been seen as a key electoral bellwether.
Four years ago, Republican former Carlyle Group executive Glenn Youngkin shocked the political establishment when he defeated longtime Democratic politician Terry McAuliffe in a state former president Joe Biden had won by 10 points just a year earlier.
But now, Democrats look poised to take back the state governor’s mansion. Former Democratic congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has consistently outpolled her Republican opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant-governor, by double digits. The margin of her polling lead is notable given Kamala Harris defeated Trump in Virginia last November by roughly six points.
Spanberger, a political moderate who was a CIA officer before she was elected to Congress in 2018, also appears to have successfully distanced herself from a political scandal involving Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate for state attorney-general.
National Review Online last month revealed Jones sent text messages fantasising about political violence against his Republican colleagues, and while he apologised for the messages, he did not drop out of his race.
New Jersey
New Jersey is the other state that holds its governor’s elections one year after the presidential vote. Four years ago, former Republican state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli came within striking distance of defeating Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy, who won re-election by a narrow three-point margin.
This year’s contest could be even closer, with the latest polls showing Ciattarelli — now running for governor for a third time — in a dead heat with his Democratic opponent, congresswoman Mikie Sherrill.
Like Virginia, Harris defeated Trump by six points in New Jersey last November. But voters in the state complain about its high living costs and give Murphy poor approval ratings. Ciattarelli has painted Sherrill as a continuation of Murphy’s governorship, while she has sought to nationalise the race and tie her opponent to Trump.
New Jersey was among the US states with the biggest swings to Trump in last year’s presidential election. But it remains one where Democrats have a huge built-in advantage: the latest official figures show around 850,000 more voters are registered there as Democrats than Republicans.
Ciattarelli will need a high turnout from registered Republicans, and win over independents and disaffected Democrats, if he is to pull off an upset.
Pennsylvania
The largest swing state in the US, Pennsylvania is almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans and has long been seen as a critical political bellwether. While the state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, enjoys a remarkably high 60 per cent job approval rating according to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Trump won the state by nearly two points last November.
The party brands will be put to the test again on Tuesday when three Democrat-endorsed justices on the state Supreme Court will face unusually contentious votes on whether they should have their 10-year term renewed.
These so-called “retention” ballots have not been closely watched in the past, and they have rarely resulted in justices being ousted from the bench.
But this year’s votes have taken on outsized significance, with Democratic and Republican party interests pouring millions of dollars into advertising in an effort to persuade voters to their cause.
Inside Trump’s America
Over the next four years, the Financial Times will be reporting from Bethlehem, Pennsylvania to understand Trump’s economy and the hopes of those who backed him in 2024, and those who didn’t. It will be our lens on America’s national trends and debates, and how Trump’s presidency is reshaping the country.
The court has ruled on issues of major national as well as state significance, and can play an important role in drawing congressional maps or certifying election results.
According to tracking firm AdImpact, Democrats have spent $13.4mn on political ads for the “retention” vote — far outspending Republicans, who have spent $2.8mn.
State and national Democrats have campaigned for a “yes” vote to retain the justices, while Republican groups, including organisations tied to billionaire donor Jeff Yass, have called for a “no” vote.
The state Supreme Court is currently balanced 5-2 in favour of the Democrat-backed justices. If all three lose, the high court would likely be deadlocked 2-2 until the end of 2027.
California
California voters will have the chance on Tuesday to approve “Proposition 50,” an amendment to the state constitution that would allow for a redrawing of the state’s congressional districts. It is being pitched by its Democratic proponents as an opportunity to send a clear rebuke to Trump and the Republican party.
The referendum was put on the ballot by California’s Democrat-controlled state legislature, and the state’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, who has been among the most party’s most forceful critics of Trump.
It was drafted as a response to the efforts of Texas Republicans — at Trump’s urging — to redraw that state’s congressional map to favour their party, potentially adding five Republican-leaning seats in Congress.
The California map as proposed under Proposition 50 could add five Democratic-leaning seats to the state’s congressional delegation.
Newsom at the weekend said he was “deeply confident” the measure would pass.
“We’re seeing overwhelming understanding and recognition of what’s at stake,” he told NBC News. “[Trump] is not screwing around. He’s changing the rules. He’s rigging the game because he knows he’ll lose if all things are equal. He did not expect California to fight fire with fire.”
